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Newsletter: January 2024

15 Jan 2024

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From Hock & Susan:

As we embark on this new calendar year, we are pleased to extend our heartfelt gratitude for your unwavering support throughout the past year. Your trust and collaboration have been instrumental in our shared success, and we are truly thankful for the opportunity to continue navigating the financial landscape together in 2024.

 

Reflecting on the past year, 2023 proved to be a robust period for investors, with both shares and bonds rallying amidst falling inflation and the anticipation of interest rate cuts in the coming year.

 

Looking forward into 2024, optimism persists for positive returns, albeit with a more constrained and volatile outlook. Factors such as the timing of rate cuts, recession risks, and geopolitical uncertainties introduce an element of caution, with a chance of recession looming over the Australian economy.

 

As we navigate the intricacies of 2024, it is imperative to keep a watchful eye on key indicators such as inflation, interest rates, recession risk, China-related risks, US political developments, and the state of the Australian consumer. By staying informed and proactive, we can collectively navigate the challenges and capitalise on the opportunities that lie ahead.

 

We are excited about the journey that awaits us in 2024 and confident that, with your continued support, we can achieve success in the ever-evolving financial landscape.


 

The Year Before

Whilst 2023 saw geo-political tensions increase, investment markets have been more resilient than many analysts and economists who previously predicted that global economies would experience recession, although the likelihood of recession has not disappeared entirely.


The following table details asset class performance:

Total Return % (Pre fees and tax)

2023

Global Shares

23.2

Asian Shares

3.4

Emerging Market Shares

9.9

Australian Shares

12.4

Global Bonds

5.3

Australian Bonds

5.3

Global Real Estate Investment Trusts

7.4

Aust Real Estate Investment Trusts

17.6

Cash

3.9

Source: Bloomberg, Morningstar, REIA, CoreLogic, AMP


 

RBA Key Economic Snapshot (4 January 2024)

Source: RBA


 

The Year Ahead

Inflation is still a concern for most global economies and will impact investment markets, particularly if it stays higher than central banks prefer, increasing the risk of recession. Higher inflation will also delay interest rate cuts, which will continue to impact mortgage rates. The combination of higher inflation and interest rates will slow the domestic and global economy.



The concerns about China’s recovery and the property sector have not abated. Higher interest rates will continue to affect asset classes that rely on debt funding, particularly infrastructure and property projects. 


Whilst domestic supply issues have lessened, the property sector is still facing supply/demand issues and construction sector uncertainty. Similarly, higher interest rates will impact the domestic property market, with a higher proportion of income allocated to mortgage repayments as savings accrued during the pandemic are depleted.


As well as ongoing geo-political issues 2024 will see almost half of the world’s population going to the polls, whilst the US election is widely publicised, much of Europe as well as India, Russia and South Africa face elections in 2024. If Trump secures the Republican nomination and was to win the election, US democracy and international credibility may be weakened, with the likelihood of trade wars. If the Israel/Hamas war spreads to neighbouring countries, there is a risk to oil production/supplies with increased petrol prices further fuelling inflation.


 

Stage 3 Tax Cuts (1 July 2024)

The stage 3 tax cuts are part of the former Government’s personal income tax plan and are legislated to take effect on 1 July 2024. Although the stage 3 tax cuts have already been legislated and are set to take effect from 2024 - 25, there is always a risk the Government could introduce changes to scale back or abandon the tax cuts prior to 1 July 2024.


Marginal Tax Rate Changes

Taxable Income

Current Marginal Tax Rate*


Taxable Income

1 July 2024 Marginal Tax Rate*

$0

0.0%


$0

0.0%

$18,200

19.0%


$18,200

19.0%

$45,000

32.5%


$45,000

30.0%

$120,000

37.0%


$200,000

45.0%

$180,000

45.0%




*Exclusive of Medicare Levy (2.0%)


Tax Savings

The table below shows the tax savings from FY 2024 - 25 based on different levels of taxable income compared to the current tax rates (FY 2023 - 24).

Taxable Income

Tax Savings

$200,000 +

$9,075

$180,000

$6,075

$160,000

$4,675

$140,000

$3,275

$120,000

$1,875

$100,000

$1,375

$80,000

$875

$60,000

$375

< $45,000

$0


Tax Strategies to Consider

Where possible and appropriate, it may be tax effective for certain individuals with a higher level of income to bring forward eligible future tax deductions into the current year to reduce their taxable income.


This could be done via:

  • Taking advantage of unused concessional contribution cap space.

    • Individuals with a superannuation balance of less than $500,000 as at 30 June 2023 may have the ability to take advantage of any unused cap space to make a larger concessional contribution this financial year.

  • Bring forward tax deductible expenses.

  • Pre-pay expenses that may be claimed as a deduction in the year that it is incurred under the 12-month rule. (Please refer to the ATO website for eligibility conditions)


On the other hand, individuals may want to delay events that lead to increased taxable income until 2024-25 or later, where their marginal tax rate may be lower.


This could be done via:

  • Postponing retirement.

  • Delaying a Capital Gains Tax (CGT) event.

  • Deferring super drawings if under the age of 60.


 

Our Services

Should you or your friends/family require personalised financial advice or wish to explore our range of services, including investment strategies, retirement planning and risk management, please do not hesitate to reach out or to pass on our details. We are committed to assisting you in making informed decisions and achieving your financial goals. Your financial well-being is our priority, and we look forward to continuing this journey together in 2024.


 

The information on this site is general in nature. It does not take into account your specific needs/circumstances into consideration. You should review your financial position, objectives and requirements and seek financial advice before making any financial decisions.

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